Photo legend: Given the atrocity, only a serious escalation is to be expected, but its goals must be clear
A great terrorist attack, a permanent human tragedy, anguish and anguish throughout the country, and a crisis of India-Pakistan … This is not an unknown feeling. Such choreography has been part of the play book several times until this century, and its background date back to the eighties and ninety years.
What is coming is a land that is not unknown either. Following the terrorist attack of December 2001 against our Parliament, the then Minister of Foreign Affairs, the late Jaswant Singh, written had the challenges he faced. In addition to sending a message to Pakistan, which contains it diplomatically and defeating terrorism in the field, there was an internal and external challenge. The internal challenge, he said, “was to bring the mood of the nations, contain their belig notch, his desire for revenge and retaliation, but give him a feeling of achievement.” The external challenge was “to bring conviction and, therefore, bring the opinion of the international community.”
The variants of the 2001 situation have been found several times from then on. The designed response package may have varied on each occasion, but remained in its nucleus, a combination of measures directed towards Pakistan, the international community and national public opinion. It is true that after pulwama’s terrorist attack, the military component in the general response increased several notches. But even before, the coercive element was never completely absent.
The package of measures announced by the Indian government and the countermeasures announced by Pakistan reflect the general status of relations between India-Pakistan. The relationship has been saved progressively since 2016 after the main terrorist attacks such as URI (2016) and pulwama (2019) already cause the measures announced by the Pakistan government after the J&K legislative in August 2019. In August 2019. Relationship, without high commissioners in their place; A total absence of high -level contacts; Diplomatic relations reduce and respect the high reduced commissions; a prohibition of trade; A freezing of civil society, cultural and sports contacts; A closure or all the usual modes or travel said bus, train, etc.
However, in terms of the last four years, this almost zero relationship had also acquired some stability characteristics. This was evidenced by the high fire in the locomotive in February 2021; surprisingly mature management of a potentially very serious situation, such as the wrong release of a missile in March 2022; and the post-covid reopening of the corridor without visas Kartarpur Sahib in November 2021. This was undoubtedly a minimal stability on a very low plateau, but it was not stability, meaningless.
During 60 -year adjustments, periods of such stability have generally lead to some efforts to revive relations. In many ways, this contributed to the nature of a rocker above the relationship that also has a frustrating characteristic. This time, however, something unusually in the last four years, the relationship remained almost constant, frozen in a certain sense, in its low plateau with suspended bilateral diplomacy. Pahalgam’s outrage has now pushed him from this plateau down to a deep abyss.
After Pahalgam’s outrage, some of the diplomatic measures announced by India, and subsequently resonated and repeated by Pakistan, are symbolic. India’s announcement that the Indo Aguas treaty will remain in suspense is certainly new and a much more serious step. Its immediate impact is limited, but what this means is that the regular meetings of the Indo commission will not be held and the exchange of routine information in the place of toys, flood seasons will not happen. However, the step is of great importance for Pakistan, since it directly touches its sensibilities as a lower riverside and indicates the deep anxieties that have been present since 1947 ITIift. The Pakistani hyperbolic response that is equivalent to the interruption of water to an act of war underlines these hyper sensibilities as well as the announcement that it will exercise the right to maintain all paths with India in suspense.
But, in summary, all these measures together do not do much, except that a relationship close to zero is equally closer to zero. The relevant thing is that they reflect a high state of tension and the understanding that this is only the starting point of a potentially very serious escalation. Given the scale of the atrocity that has visited us bone on us, this was expected. In adverse relationships such as those between India and Pakistan, coercive measures in such situations are often inevitable. However, what is important is that they are integrated into a clinical policy designed with clear objectives of what is feasible and what does not.
Discharge of responsibility
The opinions expressed above are the author’s own.
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