The murder of Muhammad Sinwar, the influential leader of Hamas whom Israel tried to kill in a recent strike, would be a great tactical success for Israel, but its long -term importance is an uncle. The group has survived for decades despite the systematic murder of Israel of its leaders.
Mr. Sinwar, whose destination is still unknown, is considered one of Hamas Military Commanders in Gaza. He is Yahya Sinwar’s younger brother, an architect of Hamas’ mortal attack against Israel in October 2023, whom Israeli troops killed last year. Israeli and the Middle East officials have concluded that Mr. Sinwar is one of the greatest obstacles to a new fire in Gaza: they say that it is among Hamas officials more opposed to renounce the arsenal of the Israeli precondition of the group for any long -term truce.
But powerful, Mr. Sinwar is only one of several high -level military leaders in Gaza, and far from the only Hamas leader opposite to Israel. His murder would undermine the group, analysts said, but they could not change the strategic perspective and operating skills of Hamas. or soften Israel’s uncompromising approach to high -fire negotiations.
“If confirmed, his death would be another great blow to Hamas: many high -ranking military and politicians have killed, and Hamas cannot replace them all,” said Mkhaimar Abusada, a Gaza political scientist.
“But I am not all if my death will lead to a commitment to Israel, and could even be counterproductive, if your successor turns out to be even more radical than Sinwar,” he added. “Hamas is not a single -man show and his negotiations with Israel still depend on a collective decision.”
It is unlikely that the death of Mr. Sinwar changes the calculations of the Israeli battlefield. Israel’s objectives extend far beyond killing specific commanders, since he seeks “total victory” over Hamas, even if Israeli leaders have fought to define what that means.
For decades, Hamas has resisted the murder of scores of its main leaders, which repeatedly demonstrates that their survival does not depend on any individual. That has been demonstrated again true this war. In addition to Yahya Sinwar, Israel has killed other leaders, including Ismail Haniyeh and Muhammad Deif – But he failed to defeat Hamas as a military and government force.
In any case, Hamas has become more uncompromising after the immediate consequences or the main murders. The group has been reluctant to show weakness, even if sometimes it has become more malleable in high -fire conversations several months later.
After Israel killed Mr. Haniyeh, a key negotiator of Hamas, last July, US and Palestinian officials said he had had a harmful effect on conversations on a truce. After the murder of Yahya Sinwar, Hamas said that his death had strengthened his resolution and promised to continue along the same path. However, three months later, the group agreed a truce, after Hamas and Israel concessions.
This mutual commitment points to another reason why Mr. Sinwar would have a long -term limited consequence: the trajectory of the war is as deposited in Israel as in Hamas.
Israel looks for a temporary truce to release more than the approximately 60 hostages that are still heroes in Gaza or a permanent agreement that guarantees the defeat of Hamas. But Hamas opposes Both scenarios, then The war will probably last unless its position. Israel has already pledged to greatly expand its military operations in Gaza in the next few days.
For some, that makes Israel a greater obstacle to a high fire than Hamas. The main problem in Gaza is “not who leads Hamas,” said Ahmad Jamil Azem, a Palestinian political scientist at the University of Qatar. “The insistence of the Israeli government to continue the war is the real problem.”
Even without Mr. Sinwar, Hamas has still experienced commanders in Gaza, including Izz al-Haddad, which supervises Hamas brigades in northern Gaza, and Muhammad Shabaneh, an official lead in southern Gaza.
Despite the great losses, Hamas has also been able to replace the murdered members or their lowest ranges. A recent Israeli intelligence evaluation suggested that Hamas had more than 20,000 combatants at their disposal, approximately the same as the levels of before the war, despite the fact that thousands were killed in October 2023.
Hamas also triggered a flood or rockets in southern Israel on Tuesday night, one of his greatest explosions in months. The attack stressed that Hamas still retains some short -range projectiles and pitchers to force Israelis in Air Raid shelters in a few seconds in advance.
A senior intelligence official of the Middle East, who speaks under the condition of anonymity to discuss delicate security matters, said that Hamas still retained a strategic network or tunnels under parts of the city of Gaza. The official also said that Hamas Military Intelligence Unit had survived the war without significant damage and continued to play an important role in maintaining Hamas control.
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Hamas seeks to turn war into a dead point and survive war as a movement. These two relatively modest objectives allow it to resist a high level of butcher shop and bloodshed.
In contrast, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seeks the total defeat of Hamas, as well as the return of the hostages held by the group, both alive and dead. Israeli generals have concluded for a long time that these two objectives are mutually incompatible.
Ibrahim Dalalsha, a Palestinian political analyst, said that Israel’s strategic unleashed “strongly suggests that this will also become another note, instead of a transformative inflection point.”
